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Recaps 16     Recaps
Past Daily Activities:
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12/19/98
Want to see some neat Christmas lights?
Tour the St. Nicholos Light Display at Domino's Farms in Ann Arbor, Michigan:

12/19/98 evening
A Gator Graduate! Little Toad's graduation was great - it was a nice ceremony and we are very proud of her. Did I mention she graduated with honors?
12/18/98 10:00
Just watching the market awhile, I'm not going to do any trading today, it's OEF (Options Expiration Friday!)
12/18/98 ALL DAY
WE ARE OFF ON EXPIRATION FRIDAY, back on Monday.
For those of you foolish enough to trade on Friday, DON'T TELL ME.


12/17/98 18:00
Note from our accountants:
We are not calculating our returns correctly. (Hey, it's a large number...) Our percentage gain year to date is WRONG! Our year-to-date return (according to them) is in the neighborhood of THREE HUNDRED AND SIXTY TWO PERCENT (362%)
- Wow, even we are impressed.


Probably will calculate using THEIR system NEXT YEAR. No changes to ours this year.

We are OFF tomorrow - and suggest you get some of your last minute shopping, bombing, impeachment work done.

Drew Robertson at ABS Live said: (I told you about them before - good people.) "Yesterday in reverse as witching momentum overwhelmed trivial events like the bombing in Iraq last night and the one in the House tomorrow."

You all have a great weekend - I'm gonna watch Little Toad graduate (with honors!) on Saturday! Proud pappa, proud mamma.
Go GATORS!

Toad Update 12/17/98 #1 14:30 EMAIL and ICQ
Well, I guess if we we're going to have a crisis - it's best to have it the day before "triple witching" - looked like we were going to take off this am - then back down.

Like I said last night, I haven't seen the movie, so I'm not sure how this ends.

Bagels were great this morining - must be FRIDAY. (oops)
12/17/98 9:25
Good morning, let's see - a moment of silence for prayer on the exchange. Good idea.

Wonder what will happen in the world today...

12/16/98 20:22
With us being off on Friday, it looks like we will have to have bagels tomorrow. Works for me. See you in the morning, Cyber Bagels courtesy of Bagels for All - 
see Links page for more info.
Hey, I didn't see the movie, can you tell me how this ends??

We are UP 174% - that's $85,051 this year!
Subscribe today, don't be 
Toadless! Some "free trial" toadsters will drop off the list this weekend - they will be "Toadless" if they don't subscribe.


Toad Update 12/16/98 #1 13:15 EMAIL and ICQ
Not much to go on today, just possible bombing of IRAQ, impeachment of the president, AOL taking OFF, earnings reports, and the market has stalled.

A/D line says market is going down - hmmmmm.
What to do - if anything..
12/16/98 9:30
Good morning, how about AOL? Let's see if we can hop today! No, not into AOL, we are sticking with S&P 100...
12/15/98 Evening Update
The lights were great!

Now let's talk about this market. Was another wierd happening on the way to expiration Friday. Bad earnings news, good earnings news, good for the president, bad for the president.....low volume.... holidays... and such...

We coulda hopped today around 15:40 or so when it looked like a breakout. We had been following our puts and calls - (three of each) and we were concerned when the Tick hit -1,142 around 2:00.

Well, then it was an up market as we went up 9 OEX points and the Tick only went to +416.

As we looked to enter a call, we considered either the Dec 565 call (OEWLM) at $11 (or higher) or the Dec 570 call (OEWLN) somewhere over $8.

By this time we were pushing 4:00 and market close - AD line was even and we didn't want to get caught holding overnight on options expiration week.

SO, see you here by the pond in the morning.
12/15/98 17:40
Will update later, we are going to look at some Christmas lights!


Toad Update 12/15/98 #1 12:42 EMAIL and ICQ
Strange day - when upside curbs went in this morning, the TICK was negative...
Still watching the pond.

Also, need to remind you that FRIDAY IS OPTIONS EXPIRATION! We will follow the tradition we started recently and we will BE OFF!
Don't even want to be tempted to trade on expiration Friday - good luck if you do.
12/15/98 9:22
Good morning, Globex is UP - stay tuned...
12/14/98 16:00
OK, OK, the Dec 575 puts hit $16 1/2!!!!
Toad Update 12/14/98 #3 15:25 EMAIL and ICQ
Well, for the Toad +10 folks, this looks pretty good.
The Dec 575 puts (OEWXO)that I sold at $14 just hit $15!
Toad Update 12/14/98 #2 15:17 EMAIL and ICQ
We are FLAT - sold the Dec 575 puts (OEWXO) at $14.
Updating the site - have a great evening.
Toad Update 12/14/98 #1 13:26 EMAIL and ICQ
I had a sell of $14 in all morning for the Dec 575 puts (OEWXO) that we bought on Friday.
Thinking about changing it to $13 - they just hit 12 3/4 awhile ago - not sure yet.
Still holding and watching.
12/14/98 9:10
Market's down; so are we. Jaguars lost. Stay tuned. . .
Toad Update 12/11/98 #2 End of Day EMAIL only
YES, I'm holding over the weekend -
YES, we are expecting the market to TANK -
YES, it hasn't yet -
NO, I don't think this is temporary insanity.
Thanks for your concerns.
Have a great weekend, we won't sleep much this weekend.
Good trading.
Toad Update 12/11/98 #1 14:37 EMAIL and ICQ
I know it's FRIDAY, we hopped into 10 contracts of the Dec. 575 puts (OEWXO) at 11.
Will let you know when we hop.
12/11/98 9:25
Transportations may be down, something else may be up. Good thing we're just sitting here watchin' first thing this morning.

Toad Update 12/10/98 #2 16:18 EMAIL and ICQ
OK folks, when I left for the doctor's office the market was fine... down some and it looked like it was trying to recover.

We have got to get this straightened out, when I leave, the Toadsters have to take up the slack, this market is NO GOOD if someone isn't watching....
See you in the morning, (It's time for BAGELS!)Cyber Bagels courtesy of Bagels for All - 
see Links page for more info.
Toad Update 12/10/98 #1 12:29 EMAIL only
Articles of impeachment, a frisky Saddam, market down, market up, what a day!
The Toad is off to the doctor's office. May be back before the market closes.
12/10/98 10:15
Looks like it might be another one of THOSE days. We're sitting here watching.
12/9/98 16:35
YES! I'm still glad we dumped the Dec 585 calls (OEWLQ) yesterday. They hit a high of about 8 and then tanked, looked like they closed at a little less than we sold them, so we are FLAT! See you in the morning.

ps. Have a Dr.s appointment tomorrow at 1:30, so plan your day! See you in the am.
Toad Update 12/9/98 #2 15:36 EMAIL only
I guess CNBC said it best: "This market doesn't want to go up and it doesn't want to go down."

Frustrating day, nothing going on - just when it looked like something was starting - it stopped. We had the beginnings several times, just not enough volume to sustain anything.
It surely doesn't look like we will have an opportunity to hop today.
Toad Update 12/9/98 #1 12:59 EMAIL only
Well, not much of a market today is it? Market is down, but only by 3 OEX points.
Market is down - hit a low just under 580 and and trying to go back up...
Nothing strong, looks like the noon-time crowd got us into a sell program - can we go back up after they go back to work??
12/9/98 9:20
Good morning - looks like a MILD (?) opening today - let's see.
12/8/98 15:20
Had some questions about this market recently, the results today say we can't continue to expect the $2 plus gains we had a couple of months ago.

Looked like the market was stalling around 1:00 to 1:30 and ALMOST changed the sell to 11. BUT with the option at 11 3/8, we thougth we could still get our $2......

Several of you were kind enough to remind me that we can't win every one of these - I know, but we would sure like to.
Toad Update 12/8/98 #2 15:01 EMAIL and ICQ
I just dumped this position - had figured this was as much as we wanted to lose - sold the Dec 585 calls (OEWLQ) at 7 1/2 OUCH!
We shoulda sold at 11! Thought about changing the sell from 11 1/2 to 11, but then they hit 11 3/8. OUCH.
Toad Update 12/8/98 #1 11:11 EMAIL and ICQ
We just hopped into 10 contracts of the Dec 585 Calls (OEWLQ) at 9 1/2.
Will let you know when we hop.
12/8/98 9:15
Good morning. Globex is down a little this morning... another reason we didn't buy the Dec 580 Calls yesterday. Let's see what they do today.
Toad Update 12/7/98 #2 16:50 EMAIL only
As much as I hate to say it - this was a SIDEWAYS day. The folks at ABS said that today was a rest after Friday's payroll report - a sluggish market.

By the way - the folks at ABS (http://www.abslive.com/mainabs.html) have great market updates during the day and you can sign up for their free email market updates - check them out.

Back to our market, the Tick hit it's high of the day (600) at 4:00! - while the market was taking it's last spike DOWN. It's a sluggish market that does weird things.
Had planned to hop into a call right after we sent the Update #1 and then it looked UGLY. The market backed off until 14:00 then hopped up with a continued drop until 15:00 - Thought it would do the same up to 16:00 but instead it went up one OEX point.
If we woulda hopped into the Dec 580 Calls (OEWLP) at 12 or 12 1/2 - well we would be holding overnight....

Let's meet back here in the morning and make some Christmas GREEN!!
Toad Update 12/7/98 #1 13:12 EMAIL only
This is the kinda day when a toad could really end up on the wrong side if he hopped. Still watching. . .
12/7/98 10:00
Beautiful day by the pond. Let's see how things go today.
12/6/98 19:20
JAGUARS WON - Jacksonville 37 - Detroit 22 Jaguars Thanks for your help!
12/4/98 20:30
Well, that's it for this strange market - the market is down 10 OEX points for the week and that's after today's 13 OEX point gain. We saw most of today's gain on the morning hop - great if you were holding a call.

A PUT was the play on Thursday - great reason NOT to HOLD OVERNIGHT!

We are UP 172% - that's $84,201 this year!
Subscribe today, don't be 
Toadless! Some "free trial" toadsters will drop off the list tonight - they will be "Toadless" if they don't subscribe.

Have a great weekend - see you next week.


Toad Update 12/4/98 #1 15:46 EMAIL and ICQ
We stopped trying to buy the Dec 575 Calls (OEWLO) - was trying to hop in at 11 and it blew past our order.

Considered it at 11 1/2 or MAYBE 12, but not comfortable enough with where the market is going.
Plus, there are some of you who DON'T like it when we hop into a positon after 3:15 or so - not much time to respond.
12/4/98 9:20
Hmmmm, the president speaks and the market drops. Good news is, he is done - can we go back up now?
12/4/98 9:20
Good morning, how about a RALLY today?? Aren't you glad we didn't buy a PUT yesterday - it was tempting...
12/3/98 23:45
Don't know much more about the market now - InfoBeat said "Brazil is counterbalancing the European rate cuts." - go figure this market.

Last week this time, we didn't ever want to think about food again - so we missed Bagel DAY! Not this week, see you here by the pond in the morning, eating bagels! So, tomorrow is FRIDAY and we have BAGELS!Cyber Bagels courtesy of Bagels for All - 
see Links page for more info. See you by the pond in the am.
12/3/98 17:40
Going to a meeting at church, will update the site later.

Meanwhile, I'm gonna think about this market today.... wierd.
No one expected it to continue DOWN during the last hour. It sure looked like it was going UP - but our signals said: nope & wait....hmmmm.

Talk to you later.
Toad Update 12/2/98 #1 12:30 EMAIL only
For the Toadsters who didn't hop out yesterday, the Dec 575 calls (OEWLO) almost hit 15 this morning.
We're still watching . . .
12/3/98 9:10
It's foggy here by the pond today but we're watching . . .
12/2/98 18:30
Yes, we were concerned today. Would have hopped out at 10 (I think) - we hung in there because we didn't see that it was getting significantly worse.

Some emails or internet something had trouble today - thank goodness for ICQ. Wasn't it just yesterday we were cussing out ICQ??

See you in the morning.
Toad Update 12/2/98 #2 16:10 EMAIL and ICQ
Just hopped out of the Dec 575 calls (OEWLO) at 14 1/2.
Toad Update 12/2/98 #1 11:10 EMAIL and ICQ
Just hopped into 10 contracts of Dec 575 calls (OEWLO) AT $13.
Will let you know when we hop out.
12/2/98 9:05
We're here at the pond. Stay tuned. . .
12/1/98 17:30
See y'all in the morning - right here at the pond.
Toad Update 12/1/98 #3 15:55 EMAIL and ICQ
Well, we had an Apprentice Toadster here today and she admits that she froze in the headlights. She did "paper trade" magnificiently but didn't make squat for bucks. She "paper traded" a Dec 580 call (OEWLP) at 10 1/4 at 13:05. She beat herself up all day as she watched it climb to 12 1/2 at 15:47 when she thinks she would have gotten out with a profit of 2 1/4.

She made a TOAD PROMISE that she WILL really trade later this week!

Probably started out all wrong when she thought she broke ICQ earlier this morning. P.S. The AT is still taking Mrs. Toad and I out to dinner tonight. Guess she will use her paper profits!
Toad Update 12/1/98 #2 11:54 EMAIL and ICQ
Looks like ICQ is back up. But the market is also.
Let's see what happens the rest of today.
Toad Update 12/1/98 #1 10:57 EMAIL and ICQ
Well, it was just confirmed that ICQ is off line and has been off line this morning.
We are going to keep on checking to see if it comes back up.
Meanwhile, we will send the notices via email.
12/1/98 9:25
Good morning and Happy December!
11/30/98 evening
A little clarification of the "possible changes in the Fed rules" statement from the email/ICQ earlier today.
CNBC was speculating all day about the Fed's changing margin requirements and/or changing the way some high volume, low float stocks trade. For instance, we see a stock with a float of 3,000,000 trade 9,000,000 shares in one day - is EVERY share changing hands three times a day? Bad for some volatile stocks and good for the bonds....

That's it for November - let's see... We are up $82,776 this year. That is an increase of 168% - not bad.
Toad Update 11/30/98 #1 15:37 EMAIL and ICQ
OK folks, I thought today was a sucker play - maybe it wasn't. We were thinking about getting serious a couple of times today and just didn't see it.

Didn't expect to see the market drop and stay down. Signals were not correct OR something else was going on.
Maybe the possible changes in the Fed rules??

As Annie says, "Tomorrow., tomorrow...."
11/29/98
Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving - see you in the morning.
11/24/98
Have a safe and Happy Thanksgiving.
11/23/98 16:10
Hey, I didn't know it was gonna go back up! Glad it did, but we hopped a little on the safe side, didn't hit our 15 1/2 sell point and felt we needed to get out of the market.

For those who stayed in, the Dec 580 calls (OEWLP)closed at 17 1/4.
Guess we had too many visions of Thanksgiving Turkey in our minds...

Speaking of which, we will be packing up here tomorrow and leaving a little early for the Thanksgiving holiday. The market us "usually" slow as the traders (and daytraders) take off, so we probably won't get any trades in tomorrow and we will be back on Monday AM.
Toad Update 11/23/98 #2 13:51 EMAIL and ICQ
I hopped out of the Dec 580 calls the SECOND TIME they hit 15!
Updating the site now.
Toad Update 11/23/98 #1 12:19 EMAIL and ICQ
We just hopped into 10 contracts of the Dec 580 calls (OEWLP) at 13 1/2.
Will let you know when we hop.
11/23/98 9:20
Good morning, Globex is up, what's gonna happen today?
11/22/98 evening
I don't want to talk about football for awhile...
The lights at Disney were really nice, they even made it snow! We were in shorts and the temperature was in the high 60's or low 70's - but Walt's people made it snow. Cool.
I don't want to talk about football for awhile...
I just don't want to talk about it.

We are UP $81,351 this year - that's 166% !

11/19/98 20:30
Don't bother checking here in the morning - WE ARE OFF ON EXPIRATION FRIDAY, back on Monday.
For those of you foolish enough to trade tomorrow, DON'T TELL ME.

Need your help this weekend, two big games and we need EVERYONE to cheer for the GATORSUF on Saturday and the JAGUARSJaguars on Sunday. Thanks for your help!
11/19/98 13:20
Water doesn't look too good for hopping today. Still watching it, but options expire in 27 hours...
Unless we get a LARGE wave, we will sit by the pond today.
We will miss the bagels on Friday - think we will have MickeyDisney pancakes!
11/19/98 9:20
Good morning, Globex is up and so are we. Stay tuned.
11/18/98
Click here to read the letter from the CEO of Bigcharts, they have improved their already great site.
We use http://www.BigCharts.com/ Bigcharts, it is free and they have some good charts. Take a look
11/18/98 19:10
Not worried a bit today...
This was a classic wave at the end of the day that carried over into the options closing, no reason to expect that the options should go up another $1.50 from 4:00 on - but they did. We got our profit on the wave at the end of the day, but SCW sold higher. (For instance at 11 1/4 - where our sell point was earlier in the day.)
Not a bad day, considering it's options expiration week!

Speaking of Options expiration, we will not be here Friday. Have rarely traded anything on expiration day, so we are:
going to Mickey DISNEY! They turn on the Christmas lights Saturday night - cool...

See you in the morning. (ps. We are FLAT!)
Toad Update 11/18/98 #2 16:04 EMAIL and ICQ
WOW, I'm outta the Nov 555 Calls (OEWKK) at 10 1/4.
Lowered my sell point to 10 1/4., they might go higher, but we are FLAT!
They hit 11 3/4 after the market closed and the options were still open...

Gee, I hate options expiration week...
11/18/98 13:07 ICQ Only
Shoulda sold earlier when it hit 10 1/4 or so. My sell was a bit higher. I will sell before the day ends.
Toad Update 11/18/98 #1 13:07 EMAIL and ICQ
We just hopped into 10 contracts of the Nov 555 calls (OEWKK) at 9 1/4. Will let you know when we hop.
11/18/98 9:15
Good morning, we are off Fed watch and some are back on "Monica" watch. Good news is she doesn't have the same effect on the market that she does on the Prez. Let's do some hopping today!
11/17/98 22:45
Dr. G
We went out to dinner tonight, talked about the market and read a lot about the market's behavior today. We were perplexed, and we are happy to report - so was everybody else.

Just knowing that will make us sleep better tonight (and the fact that we didn't hop in at the high of the day will also help us sleep better.) Good night from a Toad.
11/17/98 21:00
We waited for this for over a week?

That was it??
The DJ ended DOWN after the Feds lowered interest rates and the OEX ended UP 1.39, gimme a break!

Starting right after 2:00, we had an order ready go to purchase 10 contracts of the Nov 555 calls (OEWKK) - price undetermined. We were going to hop in as soon as we heard about the rate change.
The market was right around 558-560. The announcement came and the option shot up FAST. The option had been trading right over $8 and it shot up to 10 1/2 in under 4 minutes. Ran right past my buy price and my higher buy price after I changed it once. Considered a "Market Order" but thought we might run up and right back down. That was confirmed (we thought) arond 2:30 when the option dropped back to 9 3/4 for a very short time. WRONG!, it took off again and this time hit 14 1/2!

Market order woulda been great. The tick hit +1181! We didn't think the rally would hold (correct!) and didn't hop in... we were not confident enough to buy a PUT!

Let's get back to a non-Fed market, see you in the morning.
Toad Update 11/17/98 #1 12:19 EMAIL and ICQ
OK, we are on FED WATCH - 2 more hours.
Going to be ready to do SOMETHING right as the announcement is made, I THINK.

Looks like we might have an opportunity. EVERYONE is standing on the sidelines, waiting.......
11/17/98 9:20
Good morning nothing happening today until we hear from the Feds, stay tuned.
11/16/98 18:30
Look at today's chart, jumped up, worked it's way down and then around 2:15, the market went back up and the Dow closed ABOVE 9000. Almost like we were practicing for the Fed announcement tomorrow at 2:15....

Mostly waiting for the morrow, including the Toad.
See you then.
11/16/98 12:55
This is it, no war and now we are waiting for the interest rate decision by the Feds. UP signs and the market is dropping... hmmmm.....
11/16/98 20:20
Good morning! We are sitting here by the pond, watching. Globex is up, what's going to happen today??
11/15/98 20:20
GREAT GAME! Jaguars WON! We now have EIGHT (8) wins and 2 of the bad things.

Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

 Click here for previous Past Daily Activities (RECAPS 15)


 Click here to go to RECAPS 17

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