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  Current Report:


11/16/06 Thursday Evening     OEX   651.06   +1.82       VXO   10.15
OEX Today
L: 649.21  H: 652.87
Mrs. Toad looked at the chart and said: It looks just like the mountains, let's head back to Lake Tahoe...   She keeps adding destinations to our trip(s).   We are almost packed, just can't locate the cats...   Cat is packed!   Love to all - see you back here around the pond some time. Packing Packed!

Toad Update #2   11/16/06   15:12   OEX 651.96
Mrs. Toad is almost packed for the first trip on our long-awaited Toad Sabbatical.   She reminded us that we have always, er, almost always, taken off on Options Expiration Friday (OEF).   So, tomorrow will be no exception!

We start our long-awaited time off with some time away from the pond tonight.   Please check back at the pond from time to time and keep your email addresses up-to-date with us.   We will email you all when we are back, tanned and rested!   Love to all.
    Good trading to all and to all a good night,
    Toad & Mrs. Toad

Toad Update #1   11/16/06   14:00   OEX 652.18
It was UP on open as we expected and then was heading sideways.   But then the National Association of Home Builders reported that the housing market improved in November and that gave the market a little lift.   Stay tuned...
11/16/06   9:45
Good morning.   It's looking like another UP UP on open day.   Stay tuned...
11/15/06 Wednesday Evening     OEX   649.24   +0.70       VXO   10.35
OEX Today
L: 647.69  H: 651.42
Although the FOMC minutes took the wind out of the market's sails, it still finished the day UP.   It wasn't looking like we could pull if off and then the bulls hung in there enough to keep the market in the green.   See you at the pond in the morning.

Toad Update #2   11/14/06   15:10   OEX 649.71
The FOMC minutes were released and the FED moved the market again.   The market went down after hearing that almost all of the FED members viewed the current rates of core inflation as "uncomfortably high."   There it goes...
Toad Update #1   11/14/06   11:43   OEX 648.68
Little has changed since the Morning Report and buyers/sellers don't seem interested in changing that scenario.   We're having an early lunch today (no breakfast!) and watching to see if anyone does anything significant.   Stay tuned...
11/15/06   9:45
Good morning.   In an attempt for some follow-through, the market is headed UP UP on open.   Stay tuned...
11/14/06 Tuesday Evening     OEX   648.54   +3.86       VXO   10.89
OEX Today
L: 641.60  H: 649.37
Small Bull The program trade that hit woke up a larger bull today.   No great reasons for the market to recover the way it did today, it was the program that hit.   They are great when you are on the correct side, but when you aren't... whew!   Those November 645 puts OEYWI that were looking good around 10:30 when they hit $4.40, finished the day at $1.00 X $1.05.   Ouch.   See you back here in the morning.

Toad Update #2   11/14/06   15:51   OEX 648.78
Yep, it was looking a lot like yesterday and then a program trade hit.   Had we fallen for the move in the morning, we'd be sitting on some puts that have dropped to almost nothing.   Geez.
Toad Update #1   11/14/06   12:39   OEX 642.37
Another lunch-time around the pond and it's pretty much the reverse of yesterday.   Yesterday we said:
    "The market went UP on open, peaked at 10:05 and since that morning pop, we have been headed sideways to slightly down."
Today we hit the low around 10:05 and since then we've been headed sideways.   Stay tuned...
11/14/06   9:45
Good morning.   The market is headed UP UP on open.   Stay tuned...
11/13/06 Monday Evening     OEX   644.68   +1.36       VXO   11.01
OEX Today
L: 642.45  H: 646.43
Small Bull The small bull woke up this morning and then seemed to nap the rest of the day.   Mrs. Toad's response was: "Yawn."
Then we searched for a picture of a sleeping or napping bull...   This is it.   A bulldozer!
Sleeping Bull

Toad Update #2   11/13/06   16:17   OEX 644.68
Although the market finished the day UP, it was nothing but down since we peaked around 10:05 this morning.   See you in the morning.
Toad Update #1   11/13/06   12:00   OEX 645.68
The market went UP on open, peaked at 10:05 and since that morning pop, we have been headed sideways to slightly down.   Looking for lunch around the pond.   Stay tuned...
11/13/06   9:45
Good Monday morning.   Looks like a mixed mixer opening today.   Stay tuned...
11/11/06     Veteran's Day
Veteran's Day Please thank a Veteran or a member of the military today. Hug a Vet

11/10/06 Friday Evening     OEX   643.32   +0.61       VXO   10.61
OEX Today
L: 641.10  H: 643.98
Small Bull Not much for any signals but a small bull did show up late in the day.   He was able to get the market just barely above UNCH for the day.   The OEX was up 0.09% and the DOW was up 5 points, a 0.04% increase.   Have a great weekend.

Toad Update #2   11/10/06   14:29   OEX 642.20
We hit some lows around 1:30 and the market has been headed back up since then.   We are still down for the day, but most of the down has been erased.   Stay tuned...
Toad Update #1   11/10/06   12:26   OEX 642.14
Hug a vet, today or tomorrow, because Veteran's Day is celebrated today, but it's actually tomorrow.   That is one of the reasons the volume has been light today.   We are having lunch by the pond.   Stay tuned...
11/10/06   9:45
Good bagel morning.   Bagels   The market is headed UP UP on open.   Stay tuned...
11/9/06 Thursday Evening     OEX   642.71   -2.65       VXO   11.00
OEX Today
L: 642.19  H: 647.04
Everyone thought the CISCO numbers would be enough to take the market UP today, and it wasn't.   Now tonight Mrs. Toad's favorite, Disney, reported record revenue and record net income.   Should be interesting tomorrow.   See you back here at the pond in the morning.

Toad Update #2   11/9/06   15:46   OEX 642.21
OK, it shoulda been a put yesterday, a call the day before...   On again off again market.   Geez.
Toad Update #1   11/9/06   13:36   OEX 644.30
When CISCO beat earnings estimates last night, we figured we shoulda been in those calls yesterday and HELD OVER.   But today the market has forgotten CISCO and given back yesterday's gains.   Stay tuned...
11/9/06   9:45
Good morning.   The market is headed UP UP on open.   Stay tuned...
11/8/06 Wednesday Evening     OEX   645.36   +1.17       VXO   10.46
OEX Today
L: 641.28  H: 646.55
We wondered if the rally that took the market into the green was a response to Sec. of Defense Rumsfeld leaving.

Tomorrow will let us know if we shouldn't have chickened out of the entry into those 645 calls.   See you back here at the pond in the morning.

Toad Update #2   11/8/06   15:54   OEX 645.44
Awhile ago we were close on hopping into the November 645 calls OEYKI and they were going for $4.40 when we were looking.   We didn't hop as the signals were moving all around - they dropped back to $3.60 and are now at $3.90 and climbing.   We are NOT in the market now.   Geez.
Toad Update #1   11/8/06   12:55   OEX 643.70
The market went down on open as expected, then tried to rally and the DOW actually got into the green for a few minutes.   Since then, it's been back down a little and sideways.   Finishing up lunch by the sunny pond.   Stay tuned...
11/8/06   9:45
Good morning.   Not sure how the Senate will fall and the market is headed Down DOWN on open.   Stay tuned...
11/7/06 Tuesday Evening     OEX   644.19   +1.47       VXO   10.90
OEX Today
L: 642.62  H: 646.64
Please Vote.   It is both a privilege and a responsibility.   God bless the USA.

See everyone back here in the morning.  

Toad Update #2   11/7/06   15:00   OEX 645.11
The hop in and get some green and hop back out plan wouldn't have worked so far today.   We "considered" it again, but didn't have the signals and pattern that we had yesterday.   That concern served us well - so far today.
Toad Update #1   11/7/06   13:19   OEX 646.09
This is one of those days where we think that just maybe we shoulda held over last night.   Then we think about all the times we were up a little and by the next day we were down large.   SO, we are by the rainy pond, watching the market.   Stay tuned...
11/7/06   9:45
Good morning.   The market is headed UP UP on open.   Stay tuned...
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For the rest of you, we will see you here at the pond in the morning.

11/6/06 Monday Evening     OEX   642.72   +7.22       VXO   10.47
OEX Today
L: 635.49  H: 643.48
Yippee! We managed to hop in and hop out today with a little GREEN!   A nice way to start out November, FLAT & GREEN.

We will see you back here in the morning.

Toad Update #3   11/6/06   15:14   OEX 643.17
We were just filled on our sell order for the 5 contracts of the November 640 calls OEYKH at $6.20.   We are FLAT and GREEN.   We will let you know when we hop again.
Toad Update #2   11/6/06   14:29   OEX 642.28
We just entered a GTC sell order on our 5 contracts of the November 640 calls OEYKH at $6.20.   We will let you know when we are filled or change the order.

We are looking for the after 3:00 folks to take this market back up some and get us filled.   Stay tuned...
Toad Update #1   11/6/06   14:29   OEX 642.36
We just entered and were filled on a market order to hop into 5 contracts of the November 640 calls OEYKH at $5.50.

We will let you know when we enter our sell order - we are watching the market now.
11/6/06   9:45
Good Monday morning.   The market is headed UP UP on open.   Stay tuned...
For prior trades and commentary see the Toad's Recaps pages.

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