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Recaps 44     Recaps
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Hoppy Easter Saturday   4/14/01
We are UP 30% this month!   That's UP $4,439 so far in April!
er, still down 2% ytd
Subscribe today, 
don't be Toadless!  Click here to subscribe!
It's Easter weekend and it's EGGzactly time to say goodbye to some Free Trial Toadsters who drop off the list this weekend.   They will be "Toadless" if they don't subscribe.     See everyone else right here on Monday morning.


4/12/01 Thursday Evening       OEX   608.25   +9.80     VIX 30.28

Little Toad   Little Toad   and family will be here this weekend!

Toad Update 4/12/01 #2 15:12
Folks, we are going to call it a week - see you back here on Monday.   Have a Hoppy Easter.
Toad Update 4/12/01 #1 13:10
As we were preparing the Toad Morning Report it looked like it was going to be a slow, sideways day.   Then around 11:45, we got interested in the April 600 calls OEYDT.   Lost interest when the market backed off - and now it's back to up and down.   Looks like a lot of traders are taking off early for the three day weekend.
Not us, we will be here by the pond til maybe 2:30 or 3:00 :-)
Hoppy Easter 4/12/01   9:40

Good morning - starting to get ready for Easter around the Toad pond.

Now let's see what the market does the day before a three day weekend and after the Economic Reports (Retail Sales, PPI, Initial Claims) showed the economy is still slowing.

4/11/01 Wednesday Evening       OEX   598.45   +0.60     VIX 32.73

Thank God the crew from the USAF plane has been released - we know their families were very worried.

About the market today - if you had 4/11 in the pool - you lost.   Remember tomorrow is the last trading day this week, so feel free to have bagels tomorrow OR Friday.   Three day weekend coming up!
Let's meet back here at the pond in the morning.
Toad Update 4/11/01 #2 15:31
BAD NEWS - the DOW is under 10,000 again... remember those happy days, er day, when it was over 10,000?
Was not a trading day for a Toad - movement was headed down, but we had four moves to the upside that kept us FLAT.
Looks like we are in the BULL/BEAR/BULL/BULL/BEAR mode - here we go.   See you in the morning -  tomorrow is Thursday -   but it's the last trading day this week.
Toad Update 4/11/01 #1 12:00
URP - we just chased and have pulled our order to hop into the April 600 puts OEYPT.
Thought the market was screaming down and then as soon as it started the signals said it's going back up -   or going sideways.   We are watching closely and will let you know if/when we hop.
4/11/01   9:45

Good morning - headed UP again this morning.   Have a small pool (pond?) Pond   going about when the Toad will get back into positive numbers..   is it today?     Stay tuned to find out!
4/10/01 Tuesday Evening       OEX   597.85   +16.38     VIX 33.30

With our trade today we are UP 30% THIS MONTH! and only down 2% ytd.

How do we compare, you ask?   Take a look:

          Index

        YTD

          Nasdaq -25%
         OEX -12%
          S&P 500 -11%
          Dow Jones -6%
          TOAD -2%
See you in the morning.
Toad Update 4/10/01 #3 13:07
We just hopped out of our April 600 calls OEYDT at $13.
Will let you know when we hop again.
Toad Update 4/10/01 #2 11:45
We just hopped into 10 contracts of the April 600 Calls OEYDT at $11.
Will let you know when we hop out.
Toad Update 4/10/01 #1 11:28
This is starting to look a lot like yesterday... market UP large on open, hit a high right before 11:00 and then slipping back.
Except today the DOW is above 10,000!   Are we going to have another DOW 10,000 party?
Let's see what happens the rest of today - we are here, by the pond, watching.
4/10/01   9:35

Market headed UP again on open - and then??   Stay tuned...
4/9/01 Monday Evening       OEX  581.47  +4.12     VIX 36.74

We were watching the market and learning today.   We learned:
  • There really is a Toad Pond!
  • When Amazon.com (AMZN) projects losses of .22 per share this quarter - it's stock goes up
  • Feds like to tease us with hints of possible interim rate cuts.
  • The market went up on open, dropped until 2:00, up until 3:00, down til 3:30 and then finished up.
Just another typical day at the market.   See you here by the pond in the morning.

Toad Update 4/9/01 #2 15:46
Sort of a boring day - light volume - not much happening.   Glad we had an Apprentice Toadster here today to keep us company.
Mrs. Toad says it's time for cookies and coffee.   We'll see you tomorrow.
Toad Update 4/9/01 #1 12:30
Lots of speculation about a Fed rate cut.   That will bring the bull out again but the question is "for how long?"
Volume is light - maybe due to religious holidays this week.   We're by the pond watching and having lunch.   Stay tuned...
4/9/01   9:40

Looking for an "up" on open and then we'll see what Monday brings...
Palm Sunday Saturday   4/7/01
We are UP 17% this month!   That's UP $2,534 so far in April!
er, still down 12% ytd
Subscribe today, 
don't be Toadless!  Click here to subscribe! 
It's the weekend and what happens every weekend?   Yep, it's time to say goodbye to some Free Trial Toadsters who will drop off the list this weekend.   The poor tadpoles will be "Toadless" if they don't subscribe.     See everyone else right here on Monday morning.


4/6/01 Friday Evening       OEX 577.35     -11.17     VIX 36.76

I'm baaaack!




Well look who is back!
  Let's see how long HE stays.
OEX 4/6/01 This is what we saw and our signals said we should expect ALL DAY today.

Have a great weekend, see you on Monday.

Palm Sunday


Toad Update 4/6/01 #2 15:25
It looks like the support at 572 is holding - currently making a run against it AGAIN.
The President spoke and announced that the Tax cut passed (yea!) and the trading has been light. We've been in a trading range all day - a wide one, but it's a trading range.
We are going to accept FLATNESS over the weekend - we are UP 17% this month.
Toad Update 4/6/01 #1 12:52
Almost afraid to mention that we DIDN'T HOP into the April 580 puts OEBPP.   Yesterday our mention of the April 590 calls OEBDR caused the market to continue the rally and make us feel silly.   BUT, the 590 calls dropped significantly today and holding over would have been a disaster.
So, we are not into the 580 puts OR the 590 calls -   cause we don't know which way this animal wants to move.   Let's see: bear, bear, bear, bull, bear ??
FLAT and watching closely.
4/6/01   9:30

GLOBEX is DOWN 5 points, it's Friday and the BAGELS Bagels!  are here!   Stay tuned...
4/5/01 Thursday Evening       OEX 588.52     +27.53     VIX 34.98

I'm baaaack!
  Well look who is back!
  Let's see how long he stays this time.

See you here in the morning... (Tomorrow is Friday and I think it's YOUR turn to bring the bagels.)
Toad Update 4/5/01 #3 15:15
As we pass on the back side of 3:00, it looks like it woulda been a good hop into the April 590 calls OEBDR.   We didn't do it and we can live with that as we are conservative Toads and don't mind missing a hop   %*&*)((^*%$#%^&*)(+_&^%^$#%$^*&^&*)   now and then     %^*&*_(&^*%&%**)(_.

OK, OK, it bothers us!

We are FLAT and still don't trust this market.   Headed out to dinner with a friend tonight and we will be back later - so the update will probably be late.
Toad Update 4/5/01 #2 14:10
I blush (hey, Toad's can blush) to admit that we were considering CALLS - the April 590 calls OEBDR to be exact.   The market was headed UP and we considered a hop, then the signals went back to their sideways movement...
We thought the 590's looked pretty good at 11 to 11.50...   urp, they are now running 10.50 X 11.10 -   urp.   So we will stay FLAT for now.
Didn't send out a "Toad Morning Report" this morning - time got away from us as we were watching the market, answering emails and drinking coffee here by the pond.
Toad Update 4/5/01 #1 12:50
The market took off on open and has been stuck in a trading range since then.   Good to see the markets up, but we are not sure if everyone is happy about the employment report or about a couple of companies with better earnings forecasts.
We are here by the pond, eating lunch and watching the market.   Stay tuned...
4/5/01   9:30

Happy Anniversary Katie!
Good morning.
    Congratulations and Happy Anniversary Katie Couric.
Today is Katie's 10th anniversary on NBC's   NBC   Today Show.   We like Katie and she does a great job.

About the market today, a couple of stock say some good things and the market wants to head back UP... stay tuned...
4/4/01 Wednesday Evening       OEX 560.99     -1.39     VIX 39.07

OEX 4/4/01

    Fight
They were sure fighting for position.

Lots of places to make a mistake today - glad we stayed FLAT.  

Sent out update #3 after we saw the market do what we knew it could do.   Both the April 550 puts OEBPJ and the April 560 puts OEBPL dropped 3 points from our Toad Update #2 to Toad Update #3 - URP.

How about CALLS you ask - they moved about $3 also BUT we wouldn't have hopped into calls with the signals doing what they were doing - URP.

See you in the morning.
Toad Update 4/4/01 #3 15:44
TOLD YA!   Look what the market is doing.
Good to be FLAT!
Toad Update 4/4/01 #2 15:34
Dangerous things in the pond today.   We followed a couple of the puts; well, we followed the puts that we sent out in the "Toad Morning Report" this morning until the market moved down further and we started tracking the 550 and 560 puts (OEBPJ and OEBPL) instead.

We liked the April 560 puts, but the signals were ALL OVER the place today.   As we move into the last 30 minutes of trading, it looks like the bears are strong and the puts woulda been decent.   But nothing is very strong, so we have remained FLAT.
Toad Update 4/4/01 #1 13:05
We can't blame all of the movement today on Dr. G.   Even CNBC is saying things about this strange, flat market today.
The A's are fighting with the D's -   the TICK can't make up it's mind -   TRIN says market isn't sure -   the VIX says the market needs to head up...   my stomach says it's time for lunch and Mrs. Toad is crowing about us NOT HOLDING OVER yesterday.   Yesterday's OEBPP's are down $7 today.
Stay tuned...
4/4/01   9:35

Good morning. Looking for a dip on open.   Dr. G is speaking to the Senate Finance Committee this afternoon.   Hmmmmmm....
4/3/01 Tuesday Evening       OEX 562.32     -22.08     VIX 39.33

Looking at the way the April 580 puts OEBPP ran up around the time we were considering hopping back in - we probably would have either:
  • moved down to a different option or
  • had we stayed with the 580 puts, we would have hopped in at around $28.
Looks like we would be up about a buck and maybe holding over...   urp.

When I mentioned this analysis to Mrs. Toad, she didn't want to hear ANYTHING about holding over!   geez, some people!   We are FLAT and we will see you in the morning.
Toad Update 4/3/01 #3 14:36
We have been sooo tempted to hop back into some puts, but the market has been moving around sorta funny and the signals have NOT stayed down.
So the Toad (chicken Toad) is staying FLAT (flat Toad) for now.
Toad Update 4/3/01 #2 12:11
We just hopped out of our 5 contracts of the April 580 puts OEBPP at $23.50.
We waited all this time, and hopped out where a lot of Toadsters got out earlier, urp.   Will let you know when we hop again.
Toad Update 4/3/01 #1 11:08
We just hopped into 5 contracts of the April 580 puts OEBPP at $20.50.
Will let you know when we hop again.
We were working on the Morning Report and decided to hop instead!
4/3/01   9:35

Good morning - market is looking down on open - stay tuned...
4/2/01 Monday Evening       OEX 584.40     -7.23     VIX 34.75

It was a nice hop today - lot's of opportunities for Toadsters to hop out
after  we did and make more than we did.   We are always happy  for all of you who make more than the TOAD.  Doesn't bother us....   bother us...   bother us...

Anyway - it was  GREEN!   Let's see what Tuesday brings, we will be here in the morning.
Toad Update 4/2/01 #4 15:58
 Don't forget to wish CNBC's Ron Insana "Happy Birthday" today.

Well, we heard from some Toadsters who hopped out with MORE than the TOAD.   We are real happy for you....
After we hopped out, they backed off for a very short time and then ran up as high as $22 today.   We hopped out a little early - but it's green and we are NOT complaining.

Toad Update 4/2/01 #3 13:37
We just hopped out of the 5 contracts of the April 590 puts OEBPR at $19.30.
Will let you know when we hop again.
Toad Update 4/2/01 #2 13:09
We just hopped into 5 contracts of the April 590 puts OEBPR at $17.
Will let you know when we hop out.
Toad Update 4/2/01 #1 12:51
We have chased the April 590 puts OEBPR at 16 and again at 16 1/2.
Will let you know if/when we hop.
4/2/01   9:45

Good morning - looks like a FLAT opening today for a FLAT Toad - stay tuned...
Saturday   3/31/01
We are UP 52% this month!   That's UP $5,096!
er, still down 25% ytd
Subscribe today, don't be Toadless!  Click here to subscribe!
Click here
Some Free Trial Toadsters will drop off the list this weekend - they will be Toadless *   if they don't subscribe.   See the rest of you here by the pond Monday morning.   We are UP 52% this month - which beats the performance of ALL of the indexes, take a look at the comparison:
          Index

        Change this month

        @ 2/28/01 @ 3/31/01
         OEX -  7.7%

        -  6.7%

        -13.8%
          Dow Jones -  5.9% -  2.7%- 8.4%
          Nasdaq -14.5% -12.9%-25.5%
          S&P 500 -  6.4% -  6.1% -12.1%
          TOAD +52% -49% -25%
              * Without Toad

3/30/01 Friday Evening       OEX 591.63     +6.73     VIX 33.82

No direction, no enthusiasm today - almost like a FRIDAY when everyone wanted to start the weekend.   Weekend?   Sounds like a great idea - let's take the next two days off. Mic - see ya real soon

If you are at Disney this weekend - watch out for those two small, green Toads and please be careful where you step.
The Toad family is going to see the
Main Street Electrical - Magic Light Parade one more time before it moves to Disneyland Paris.
 
Toad Update 3/30/01 #3 14:55
Frustrating -   so much that we considered hopping into 5 contracts of the April 600 calls OEYDT at $12.50 or $13.   Remember them?   We tried to get them this morning at $10!
So, we are remaining FLAT and a little frustrated.   It's been a good week, good bagels, BAD Friday.
Toad Update 3/30/01 #2 13:24
We pulled our order for the April 600 calls OEYDT when the market started back down, we are watching closely.   Stay tuned...
Toad Update 3/30/01 #1 12:26
It doesn't look like our order to hop into the April 600 calls OEYDT at $10 is going to make it.   We will raise the price IF the market keeps running up.
Will let you know when we hop.
3/30/01   9:35

Looking for a modestly positive open but it is the last day of the quarter so anything could happen. Stay tuned...
3/29/01 Thursday Evening       OEX 584.90     -3.41     VIX 33.83

OEBPP 3-29


OEX 3-29


Things to watch10:00 11:0012:00 13:0014:00 15:00Close Final Numbers
OEX -4.97-0.40+0.68+1.86-0.22-4.03 -3.41584.90
Dow Jones -53.66+92.00+21.10+48.13+37.97-54.49+13.719799.06
Nasdaq -20.90+21.80-9.04-4.46-23.80-41.61-33.561820.57
S&P 500 -7.05+8.02-0.14+2.43-1.60-12.60-5.341147.95
Advancers 910 1500 15601650 162214611489
Decliners 1381 11591285 1268134315491559
New Highs 17324150566270
New Lows 2332 3641505866
TICK -106937386630-65023
TRIN 1.670.881.091.071.161.501.12
OEBPP   580 puts 14.5011.5012.5012.5014.0016.0014.50

We studied the numbers and the charts tonight and came up with the overwhelming conclusion that today was a strange day.   We we will have the bagels Bagels!   ready in the morning - let's sit around the pond and watch the market.   See you then.

Oh, someone pointed out that we are UP over $5,000 this month!
Toad Update 3/29/01 #4 15:22
We just hopped out of the April 580 puts OEBPP at $17.50.
We were considering changing it when we got our confirmation.   We are FLAT toads.
Toad Update 3/29/01 #3 14:59
We just hopped into 10 contracts of the April 580 puts OEBPP at $15.50
Will let you know when we hop out.   It will be TODAY.
Toad Update 3/29/01 #2 13:27
We have power back at Toad Central and it looks like we have had no major damage around the pond.
We felt a lot like Lincoln - trying to read the Wall Street Journal by candlelight.
Watching the market again.
Toad Update 3/28/01 #1 11:22
We are under a Tornado watch and the power is off at Toad Central.   We are running on batteries on our computers and the phone line/internet still works.
The rain is really coming down and we are watching the pond rise rapidly.   We will send out another email when we are back to normal.
3/29/01   9:30

Need I repeat myself?   Fight   GLOBEX is down a little and the fight continues - stay tuned...
3/28/01 Wednesday Evening       OEX 588.31     -17.27     VIX 33.22

OEBPR 3-28


I was lamenting to several Toadsters that we were the ASK several times today as we tried to get out of the April 590 puts at 19 1/2 - look at this - those suckers hit $19.40... geez.


We won't complain - it's GREEN!

See you in the morning.
Toad Update 3/28/01 #3 16:07
We just hopped out of the April 590 puts OEBPR at $18.50.
Don't know if the market is headed back down tomorrow, but we sure don't want to be holding over in this every other day up/down market.
Mrs. Toad said earlier today that maybe we should just hop out with a buck, but we were holding out for 2 bucks.   We watched it hit $19 a couple of times - but we were looking for 19 1/2.
We are FLAT, green Toads.
Toad Update 3/28/01 #2 12:18
We have been in this skruffy market (Mrs. Toad's words) for about 40 minutes and we don't like this lunch time crowd today.
Hang in there we still have some down signals.
Toad Update 3/28/01 #1 11:38
We just hopped into 10 contracts of the April 590 puts OEBPR at $17.50.
Will let you know when we hop out.
3/27/01   9:30

Like we mentioned last night - the FIGHT is on! - GLOBEX is down and market is set to open lower this morning.   That bear doesn't give up easily does he?
Tick 3-27 3/27/01 Tuesday Evening       OEX 605.58       +17.13     VIX 30.69

The
fight is on!   Fight   Tune in tomorrow for the next chapter!
    Mrs. Toad looked at the charts we were pondering tonight and said:
    "That's a pretty skruffy chart."
That's one profound woman. Mrs. Toad   See you in the morning.
Toad Update 3/27/01 #2 13:49
We thought we'd be regretting not hopping into the April 600 calls OEYDT at $17 as we watched them run up to $18... and then they headed back down.   Thought seriously about getting them at $18 and the signals were backing off AGAIN.   So we are flat and watching as the OEYDT's are running 17.20 X 18.70.
We will let you know if/when we hop.
Toad Update 3/27/01 #1 11:08
We just chased the April 600 calls OEYDT - but we have pulled the order and will see if the OEX keeps heading up, if it does, we will re-enter the order.
Will let you know when we hop.
3/27/01   9:35

Forgot to mention: CONGRATS to TIGER for his win at The Players Championship!   He is a remarkable golfer.
Now, about the market today, GLOBEX has been up a little and down a little - let's see what the market does after open.   Stay tuned...
3/26/01 Monday Evening       OEX 588.45       +7.74     VIX 33.19

Sleeping bear? Shhhhhh....   All night we've been trying to figure out if the bear is sleeping or just resting up for another run.

See you back here in the morning to find out.   shhhhh...
Toad Update 3/26/01 #2 15:36
It's one of those days when we coulda hopped either way - like into the April 590 calls OEBDR at $19 - (they are running $16.30 X $17.70 now) or into the April 590 puts OEBPR at $19 - (they are running $19 X $20 now.)
So, no great gains on either side and we were most serious about the CALLS - I guess this is a rebound, but the market has been headed DOWN since noon today.   Quite a market.
Toad Update 3/26/01 #1 14:20
Just when we thought it was going to be safe to hop into a CALL - the market headed down.   We were looking at the April 590 Calls OEBDR earlier today.. and we didn't hop -   thank you.
We are thinking about the April 590 Puts OEBPR now...   But for how long?   Stay tuned...
3/26/01   9:35

Good Monday morning - GLOBEX is up, let's see what happens today.   Stay tuned...
Sunday   3/25/01
Hole #17 Island Green We planned to head out to the TPC to catch the last round of The Players Championship, but Mrs. Toad is a little under the weather today.   Our local weather has also rain delayed the start, so we are going to watch some of it on TV.


    We are still UP $2,246 this month! er, down 39% YTD.
Subscribe today, 
don't be Toadless!  Click here to subscribe! 
Another weekend is here and it's time to say goodbye to some Free Trial Toadsters who will drop off the list this weekend - they will be "Toadless" if they don't subscribe.     See everyone else right here on Monday morning.



Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

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