Daytrader TOAD's
Daytrader TOAD's
RULE # 13: Let's hold over.
We know that's a strong statement. After holding over recently, we took some of the time we were in the pond worrying about the market to do some calculations. Our success ratio has always been 80% winners and 20% losers. We recalculated with the "Hold Over’s" removed and found out:
If we hold over, we go from an 80:20 success rate to about a 50:50 chance of winning. We usually decide to hold over if the position is already down or if it is up slightly for the day AND we see potential moves coming in our direction. Not all of the Held Over trades would have been losers if we had closed out on the purchase day. Then we recalculated using the percent hit ratio of each group considering the magnitude of the wins/losses and here are those findings: Trades Held Over: Trades NOT Held Over: Makes Toadal sense to us. Mrs. Toad said: "I knew that!" As you can see from above, NOT holding over is running 90% wins - think we will stick with that. Hope this analysis helps.
98 & 99 Results Totals:
All Trades:
80% Wins
20% Losses
Trades Held Over:
52% Wins
48% Losses
Trades NOT Held Over:
90% Wins
10% Losses
Average $
%
Total
All Trades:
$1,715
Win
X
80
=
$137,200
$3,290
Loss
X
20
=
($ 65,800)
Total
$ 71,400
PROFIT on 100 trades
$2,223
Win
X
52
=
$115,596
$4,217
Loss
X
48
=
($202,416)
Total
($ 86,820)
LOSS on 100 trades
$1,608
Win
X
90
=
$144,720
$1,685
Loss
X
10
=
($ 16,850)
Total
$127,870)
PROFIT on 100 trades